Ongoing 2019-2024

The Future Ground: Urban Planning Under Climate Uncertainty

Ph.D. Project at TU Delft TPM Resilience Lab

Urban planning faces major challenges in tackling interconnected problems to prepare for climate-related disruptions. These disruptions, including sudden shocks and ongoing stresses, are made worse by rapid urban growth and increasing demands on infrastructure, and resources. While long-term thinking has always been central to urban planning, current frameworks often fail to address the complexity of planning for climate uncertainty. Most approaches focus on individual systems—such as land use, transportation, and energy—without integrating these into broader strategies that consider how these systems interact over time.

Traditional planning methods, like master plans and zoning laws, work well for creating fixed structures but struggle to adapt to changing and unpredictable conditions. Newer tools, such as Planning Support Systems (PSS), use data and models to address these challenges. However, these tools are often poorly integrated into larger frameworks and require significant resources and collaboration, limiting their effectiveness.

A major shift in urban planning is needed to balance immediate needs with long-term goals to integrate resilience. This means rethinking planning as a flexible and adaptive process that can handle evolving conditions and interconnected systems. This research examines how planning theories and methods can better address the uncertainties of climate change. Central to the project is also the question: How do resilience objectives differ between urban regions at varying stages of development?

The study focuses on three key areas: (1) How planning theory has evolved to address climate challenges. (2) The role of tools like PSS in helping cities become more resilient; (3) How temporal dynamics, such as the development and renewal of infrastructure, and planning timeframes can be harmonized to guide long-term planning.

The research makes two theoretical contributions: (1) A framework for long-term urban planning in the face of climate uncertainty. (2) Insights into how the timing and lifecycle of urban systems can inform better strategies; and (3) It also introduces a practical method for scenario planning that combines computer-based models with real-world insights.

The findings highlight the need for planning approaches that are flexible and responsive, helping cities meet immediate demands while staying resilient to future climate challenges.